Weekend: September 2nd-4th/5th, 2016
1. “Don’t Breathe” (PG-13, 3,051 theaters) –
My Prediction: #1, $13 million (-50%) second weekend three-day gross, $17 million (-35%) weekend four-day gross; $70 million final
What Actually Went Down: #1, $15.8 million (-40.2%) second weekend three-day gross, $19.7 million (-25.4%) four-day
“Don’t Breathe” was abetted by a robust-ish Labor Day Weekend, already besting the sum of director Alvarez’s debut feature, the stoic “Evil Dead” remake, with a $55.1 million 11-day total. The $9.9 million-budgeted Screen Gems hit handily trounced the competition, finishing almost $7 million clear of its closest competition over the four-day frame. My $70 million prediction for its final take is looking wildly pessimistic now. And that’s great news for original horror movies everywhere! The Raimi/Tapert contingent strikes again!
2. “Suicide Squad” (PG-13, 3,292 theaters) –
My Prediction: #3, $7 million (-42%) fifth weekend three-day gross; $9 million (-25%) fifth weekend four-day gross; $310 million final
What Actually Went Down: #2, $9.9 million (-19.1%) fifth weekend three-day gross; $12.7 million (+3.6%) four-day
Harley Quinn and Deadshot have brought in $300.1 million to date, after holding up way better than I expected and finished one slot higher to boot. It has an outside shot (an outside Deadshot, if you will) at hitting $320 million domestically. The real story here is what happened to my predicted #2, “Morgan,” which bellyflopped in hilarious fashion in its debut this weekend. Fox’s computer-marketed tale Morgan was actual the third-most-successful new release this weekend, getting totally trounced by prestige pic “The Light Between Oceans” (which opened in 500 fewer theaters) and “No Manches Frida,” Lionsgate’s US release of the Mexican comedy, which pulled in $3.7 million from 362 theaters (posting a $10,155 per-theater average over three days and $12,786 over four, almost double the averages of “Don’t Breathe,” the closest competition in per-theater average among the rest of the top 20). Fox’s sci-fi thriller “Morgan” made just $2 million in 2,020 theaters, for a pathetic $996 per-theater average over three days. It averaged just $1,247 over four days (for a $2.5 million sum), and it will be hard-pressed to make back its $8 million budget. I thought it would finish at #2 at the box office with a respectable $10.5 million opening weekend three-day gross, and a $13 million opening weekend four-day gross. I am quite surprised by audiences’ universal rejection.
3. “Kubo and the Two Strings” (PG, 2,985 theaters)
My Prediction: #7, $5 million three-day third weekend (-36%), $6 million four-day (-24%)
What Actually Went Down: #3, $6.4 million (-18.7%) three-day third weekend, $8.8 million (+11.7%) four-day
Score one for stop-motion animation! The well-reviewed “Kubo,” from Portland-based animation house Laika, has brought in $36.6 to date, and should handily make cruise past $50 million. Enough to green light more stop-motion, but not great. It will be salvaged by its performance abroad.
4. “Pete’s Dragon” (PG, 3,272 theaters)
My Prediction: #8, $4.5 million (-39%) fourth weekend three-day gross; $5.5 million (-26%) four-day
What Actually Went Down: #4, $6.3 million (-14.7% theaters) fourth weekend three-day gross; $8.5 (+14.2%) four-day
The Disney remake has made $66.3 million to date and will finish in the vicinity of $80 million. It cost $75 million so this is not exactly a hit. I hope this doesn’t inspire a 3D “Bedknobs and Broomsticks” remake. STOP CHURNING OUT REMAKES THAT PEOPLE ARE MILDLY DOWN FOR!!
I thought that Derek Cianfrance’s rookie historical romance “The Light Between Oceans” would finish at #4 with $7 million in three days and $9 million after four. Instead, it finished at #6, and brought in just $6.1 million after four days.
5. “Sausage Party” (R, 2,766 theaters) –
My Prediction: #5, $5 million (-35%) fourth weekend three-day gross, $7 million fourth weekend two-day gross (-9%); $105 million final
What Actually Went Down: #5, $5.2 million (-31.0%) fourth weekend three-day gross; $6.5 million (-14.2%) four-day
The talking grocery store comedy has pulled in $89.6 million total as of Tuesday and should definitely cross the $100 million barrier before its stateside run is over.